Are Loot Boxes Gambling? Europe’s Regulatory Shift Explained for Gamblers

Hook: Why gamblers and players should care about Italy’s Activision Blizzard probe right now

If you play free-to-play titles, bet on esports or use in-game items as virtual currency, recent moves in Europe make immediate changes to how you spend and bet likely. Players and bettors face unclear rules, slow refunds, and rising regulatory risk — while operators confront potential reclassification of common monetization mechanics as gambling. Italy’s January 2026 probe into Activision Blizzard is not an isolated event; it is the latest escalation in a multi-year European push to treat certain in-game purchases as regulated wagering. This article explains what that means for you and offers practical next steps to protect money, accounts and rights.

Topline: What happened — and why it matters

In January 2026 Italy’s competition and consumer regulator, the Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato (AGCM), opened investigations into Microsoft-owned Activision Blizzard. The AGCM alleges “misleading and aggressive” sales practices in mobile titles such as Diablo Immortal and Call of Duty Mobile, focusing on design elements that push users — including minors — towards repeated spending and purchases of bundled virtual currency whose real value is hard to assess.

That probe matters because member-state investigations have ripple effects: national findings can spur other regulators, trigger class actions, and accelerate EU-level guidance. For players, bettors and operators the central legal question is whether specific in-game mechanics — notably randomized rewards (loot boxes), currency bundles, and time-limited scarcity tactics — meet the legal definition of gambling under national or EU law.

European context: a quick timeline and precedent (2018–2026)

To understand Italy’s action, view it against the broader, multi-year European trend to scrutinize gambling-like game mechanics:

• Belgium (2018): Early national rulings concluded that certain loot boxes meet the definition of gambling when they offer items of monetary value tied to chance.
• UK and the Netherlands (2019–2024): Regulators investigated, produced guidance and pressed for consumer protections without a uniform conclusion across jurisdictions. The UK emphasized consumer protection while stopping short of wholesale gambling classification for all loot boxes.
• EU-level activity (2024–2026): Policymakers and consumer agencies increased scrutiny. Late 2025 consultations and stakeholder hearings signalled growing appetite for harmonized rules addressing opaque virtual currency bundles, odds disclosure, and stronger age-verification measures.
• Italy (Jan 2026): AGCM’s probe into Activision Blizzard alleges aggressive monetization and lack of transparent value disclosure — a consumer-law angle that can coexist with gambling-style enforcement.

Why regulators are focusing on loot boxes and in-game purchases now

Regulators cite overlapping concerns: consumer harm, protection of minors, opaque monetization and the gambling-like psychology of randomized rewards. Recent moves reflect three linked trends in 2025–2026:

1. Higher consumer standards post‑DSA/DMA era: Digital market rules pushed platforms and publishers under closer scrutiny for dark-patterns and misleading commercial practices.
2. Data-driven evidence: Increased research linking certain monetization designs to overspending and gambling-like behaviours made regulators more willing to act.
3. Cross-border enforcement pressure: A single national finding can prompt others to open probes or demand compliance, creating network effects.

What counts as “gambling” — and where loot boxes sit on the spectrum

There’s no single EU definition that automatically brands every in-game purchase as gambling. Instead, national regulators test mechanics against key elements common to gambling law:

• Consideration: Did the user pay money or give something of value for the chance?
• Prize: Is there a reward with real-world value or transferable utility?
• Chance: Is the outcome primarily determined by randomness?

Mechanics where all three are present — for example, buying randomized boxes that can be cashed out, sold or used in betting markets — are at highest regulatory risk. In contrast, direct purchases of non-random cosmetic items with no resale value are generally lower risk.

Regulatory risk matrix (practical summary)

• High risk: Paid randomized rewards + secondary market or betting interoperability (skins used in wagers).
• Medium risk: Randomized rewards with in-game economic value but no clear external cash-out route.
• Lower risk: Direct pay-for-cosmetics with transparent pricing and no chance element.

Case study: Italy vs. Activision Blizzard — what regulators allege

The AGCM’s January 2026 statements focus on two interlocking complaints:

• Use of addictive design patterns and scarcity mechanics that nudge prolonged play and spending, particularly among minors.
• Lack of clarity about the real value of virtual currency sold in bundles and the economic impact of purchases, potentially misleading consumers.

“These practices ... may influence players as consumers — including minors — leading them to spend significant amounts ... without being fully aware of the expenditure involved,” the AGCM observed.

That framing — consumer protection and unfair commercial practice — can be pursued parallel to or instead of a gambling classification, but it raises the same practical outcomes: fines, mandated disclosures, and restrictions on sale to minors.

How this shift affects three audiences

Players (gamers and casual spenders)

What you should do now to reduce financial and account risk:

• Enable platform spending limits and two-factor authentication immediately.
• Track and audit purchases: Keep screenshots and receipts for large purchases and bundled currency buys.
• Prefer direct purchases of named items to randomized boxes where possible.
• Use official odds disclosure (when provided). If publishers don’t publish odds, treat randomized purchases with caution.
• If you suspect misleading practices, lodge complaints with your national consumer authority and keep records.

Bettors and esports participants

Skin markets and item-based betting are especially exposed. Practical steps:

• Verify site licensing and AML/KYC processes before depositing items or funds.
• Avoid third-party skin marketplaces that lack transparent terms or insurance.
• Follow regulatory developments in your country — skins betting bans or licensing requirements can affect liquidity and withdrawal rights overnight.

Operators and publishers

Publishers must move from reactive to proactive compliance. Immediate operational priorities:

• Conduct an independent regulatory risk assessment that categorises monetization mechanics by jurisdiction.
• Implement clear odds disclosure, transparent virtual currency conversion rates and item valuation in real currency.
• Deploy robust age‑verification and parental controls where minors may be affected.
• Prepare geo-blocking or alternative monetization models in high-risk jurisdictions by updating deployment and feature flags in your ops stack (see advanced devops patterns).
• Consider voluntary change: swap randomized rewards for direct sales or allow refunds where practical to reduce liability.

Practical compliance checklist for operators (short form)

1. Map mechanics to legal tests for gambling in all active markets.
2. Publish clear odds for randomized elements and real-money equivalents for virtual currencies.
3. Upgrade age verification and spend-limiting features.
4. Train UX designers to avoid dark-patterns and time-pressure nudges.
5. Establish incident response and consumer-complaint workflows tied to local regulators.
6. Budget for licensing or regulatory fees where reclassification is likely — combine legal, UX and infra forecasts with operational cost tools (see reviews of observability and cost tooling to help plan).

What to watch in 2026: predictions and near-term trends

Based on late 2025 consultations and the pattern of national actions up to early 2026, expect the following:

• More national probes: Countries with strong consumer-protection agencies will open targeted investigations where evidence of aggressive monetization exists.
• EU guidance or harmonisation attempts: The European Commission and consumer agencies will push for common disclosure standards — especially odds transparency and virtual currency valuation.
• Operator adaptation: Larger publishers will pilot non-randomized monetization and clearer wallet conversion rates to reduce legal exposure. Some titles will change mechanics or withdraw features in stricter markets.
• Market fragmentation: Expect geofencing and local variants of games with different monetization models across countries.
• Enforcement outcomes: Fines and mandated changes — sometimes framed under consumer law rather than gambling law — will become common tools.

Why this matters for the gambling and esports ecosystem

Reclassifying certain in-game purchases as gambling has wide effects:

• Operators may need gambling licences, bringing AML/KYC, advertising restrictions and tax obligations.
• Bettors using items as wager collateral could face reduced liquidity and frozen marketplaces.
• Players — particularly minors — could be better protected by spending limits and refunds but may also lose some open-market functionality for trading items.

How to spot misleading or potentially illegal in-game monetization (quick signals)

• Opaque bundles: No clear real-currency equivalence for virtual currency packs or unclear unit pricing.
• Randomized purchase locks: Important progression items behind chance-based mechanics.
• Pressure tactics: Countdown timers, fear-of-missing-out nudges targeted at young players.
• Secondary market integration: Items that can be cashed out or used on unregulated betting sites.

Reporting and escalation: what players should do now

If you encounter aggressive or misleading practices, take these steps:

1. Document the experience: screenshots, timestamps, receipts and dialogue with support.
2. Use platform dispute channels first (store, publisher, payment provider).
3. If unresolved, file a complaint with your national consumer protection authority; keep a copy of the complaint.
4. For suspected underage targeting, notify your national data protection or child-protection regulator and consider contacting consumer NGOs that track these issues.

Final takeaways

Italy’s probe into Activision Blizzard is a pivotal signal: regulators are moving from study to enforcement, and the bar for protecting consumers — especially minors — is rising. For players, that means exercising caution with randomized purchases, using platform safeguards and reporting misleading practices. Bettors should verify marketplace licensing and avoid informal skins markets. Operators must reassess product design, improve transparency and prepare for licensing or structural changes in certain countries.

This is not the end of monetization in gaming — it is an inflection point. The next 12–24 months will determine whether game economies evolve to be more transparent and safer, or whether fragmented rules will create new frictions for cross-border play and betting.

Resources and next steps (actionable links and checklist)

Start here to protect money and accounts:

• Enable platform spending limits and two-factor authentication.
• Audit recent purchases and save receipts for bundled currency buys.
• Report aggressive or misleading practices to your national consumer authority; for Italian players, monitor AGCM filings for updates.
• For operators: commission an independent legal and UX audit focused on gambling classification risks and consumer law compliance.

Disclaimer

This article summarizes regulatory trends and practical steps for players, bettors and operators as of January 2026. It is not legal advice. For binding legal guidance, consult a qualified attorney or your national regulator.

Call to action

Stay informed and protect your play: sign up for localized alerts on loot box regulation, monitor publisher disclosures for odds and valuation changes, and report suspected misleading monetization to your consumer authority. If you want a concise, shareable checklist tailored to your country — download our free 2026 Loot Box Compliance Checklist or subscribe for weekly legal updates and live alerts about investigations like Italy’s Activision Blizzard probe.